Asteroid 2024 YR4: NASA Raises Alert for Potential City-Killing Impact in 2032

Image credits: Handout / NASA/Magdalena Ridge 2.4m telescope/New Mexico Institute of Technology, AFP

The possibility of a "city-killing" asteroid hitting Earth has increased, with NASA raising the odds of asteroid 2024 YR4 colliding with our planet in 2032 to 3.1%. This asteroid, estimated to be between 40 and 90 meters wide, has been classified as a potential threat by the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), with its impact risk corridor spanning across the eastern Pacific Ocean, northern South America, the Atlantic Ocean, Africa, the Arabian Sea, and South Asia. The asteroid's size and velocity make it a significant threat, with the potential to cause severe blast damage and destruction to a local region.

According to NASA's latest calculations, the impact probability of asteroid 2024 YR4 has increased to 3.1%, with a potential Earth impact date of December 22, 2032. This translates to odds of one in 32, roughly the same as correctly guessing the outcome of five consecutive coin tosses. The European Space Agency (ESA) has also estimated the risk, putting it slightly lower at around 2.8%. The asteroid's potential devastation comes less from its size and more from its velocity, which could be nearly 40,000 miles per hour if it hits, making it a city-killer rather than a global catastrophe.

Scientists are working to gather more data on the asteroid, with the James Webb Space Telescope set to play a key role in assessing its size and trajectory. The telescope's infra-red instruments will be used to study the heat emitted by the asteroid, allowing researchers to determine its size and the level of damage it would cause if it were to strike Earth. The asteroid's orbit is currently taking it out towards Jupiter, and its next close approach will not be until 2028, giving scientists ample time to act and potentially deflect the asteroid if necessary. The technology used to deflect asteroids, such as the DART mission, has proven successful in the past, and scientists are exploring other methods, including using lasers to create thrust by vaporizing part of the surface.

The potential impact of asteroid 2024 YR4 is a concern for many, with the total at-risk population estimated to be around 110 million people. However, experts are urging calm, stating that the odds could come back down in the future and that there is still time to act. The asteroid will fly behind the Sun in April, putting it out of sight of most of Earth's terrestrial telescopes until it comes back into view in 2028, making it essential to gather as much information as possible in the interim. By using the James Webb Space Telescope and other technologies, scientists hope to determine the level of damage the asteroid would cause if it were to strike Earth and potentially prevent a disaster.

In conclusion, the increased odds of asteroid 2024 YR4 hitting Earth in 2032 have sparked concerns about the potential impact, but scientists are working to gather more data and potentially deflect the asteroid if necessary. With the help of advanced technologies, such as the James Webb Space Telescope, researchers are racing to assess the threat level and prevent a disaster. The situation is being closely monitored by the international astronomical community, and the public is being kept informed about the latest developments.