Asteroid 2024 YR4: NASA Warns of Potential Impact with 3.1% Chance of Hitting Earth

Image credits: Handout / NASA/Magdalena Ridge 2.4m telescope/New Mexico Institute of Technology, AFP

The asteroid 2024 YR4, estimated to be around the size of a football pitch, has been identified as a potential threat to Earth, with a 3.1% chance of impact in 2032, according to NASA data. This makes it the most threatening space rock in modern forecasting, with the potential to cause severe damage to a region if it makes impact. The asteroid's trajectory takes it over some of the world's most populous cities, including Bogotá, Abidjan, Lagos, Khartoum, Mumbai, Kolkata, and Dhaka, with a combined population of over 110 million people.

Scientists have calculated that the impact risk corridor of the space rock stretches eastwards from the Pacific Ocean, over South America, the Atlantic Ocean, Africa, the Middle East, and into Asia. The potential impact zone would have a radius of around 50 kilometers, with the destructive potential of the asteroid equivalent to 8 million tons of TNT, roughly 500 times the power of the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima. NASA and other space agencies are working on contingency measures, with two UN-endorsed response groups already working to narrow down the asteroid's trajectory and prepare any necessary intervention.

The asteroid was first detected on December 27 last year by the El Sauce Observatory in Chile, and astronomers estimate its size to be between 130 and 300 feet wide, based on its brightness. Analysis of its light signatures suggests it has a fairly typical composition, rather than being a rare metal-rich asteroid. The International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) issued a warning memo on January 29 after the impact probability had crossed one percent, and since then, the figure has fluctuated but continues to trend upward. NASA's latest calculations estimate the impact probability at 3.1%, with a potential Earth impact date of December 22, 2032.

Experts say there is no need for alarm, as the global astronomical community is closely monitoring the situation, and the James Webb Space Telescope is set to fix its gaze on the object next month. The space telescope will be key in better understanding the asteroid's trajectory, and data from it will help scientists to refine their predictions. If the risk rises over 10%, IAWN would issue a formal warning, leading to a recommendation for all UN members who have territories in potentially threatened areas to start terrestrial preparedness. The potential impact corridor spans the eastern Pacific, northern South America, the Atlantic, Africa, the Arabian Peninsula, and South Asia, with major cities potentially at risk.

Some of the major cities that could be affected by the asteroid's impact include:

• Bogotá
• Abidjan
• Lagos
• Khartoum
• Mumbai
• Kolkata
• Dhaka

NASA's 2022 DART mission proved that spacecraft can successfully alter an asteroid's path, and scientists have theorized other methods, such as using lasers to create thrust by vaporizing part of the surface, pulling it off course with a spacecraft's gravity, or even using nuclear explosions as a last resort. With ample time to act, scientists are working to gather more data and refine their predictions, and the world is watching with bated breath as the situation unfolds.

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