Asteroid 2024 YR4: NASA Warns of Potential City-Killer Impact

Image credits: Handout / NASA/Magdalena Ridge 2.4m telescope/New Mexico Institute of Technology, AFP

The asteroid 2024 YR4, estimated to be between 40 and 90 meters wide, has been classified as a "city killer" due to its potential to release energy equivalent to 7.7 megatons of TNT if it were to hit Earth. According to NASA, the odds of collision in 2032 have been steadily increasing, with the current probability standing at 3.1%, or about a 1-in-32 chance. This has sparked concern among astronomers and space agencies, who are closely monitoring the situation and working on contingency measures to prevent a potential disaster.

The asteroid's estimated flight path takes it over some of the world's most populous cities, including Bogotá, Abidjan, Lagos, Khartoum, Mumbai, Kolkata, and Dhaka, with a combined population of over 110 million people. The impact zone would have a radius of around 50 kilometers, and the destructive potential of the asteroid is equivalent to 8 million tons of TNT, roughly 500 times the power of the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima. The asteroid is thought to have a fairly typical composition, rather than being a rare metal-rich asteroid, which could affect its potential impact.

NASA and other space agencies have already successfully tested technologies to deflect asteroids, including the Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) mission in 2022, which redirected an asteroid twice the size of 2024 YR4. Another asteroid-redirection test undertaken by China is set to take place in 2027 on a smaller asteroid. The James Webb Space Telescope will also observe the asteroid in the coming months, providing crucial information on its size, composition, and trajectory. This data will help determine the best course of action to prevent a potential impact, including the use of lasers or nuclear explosions as a last resort.

Here are some key facts about asteroid 2024 YR4:

• Estimated size: 40-90 meters wide
• Potential impact date: December 22, 2032
• Impact probability: 3.1% (1-in-32 chance)
• Potential energy release: 7.7 megatons of TNT
• Impact zone radius: 50 kilometers

The international astronomical community is working together to narrow down the asteroid's trajectory and prepare any necessary intervention. While the situation is being closely monitored, experts emphasize that there is no need for alarm at this point, and that the odds of collision may yet come down as more data is gathered.

Ground-based observations of asteroid 2024 YR4 will continue to be made while it is still visible from Earth until April, before it becomes too faint to view until June 2028. The asteroid's orbit is currently taking it out towards Jupiter, and its next close approach will not be until 2028. If the risk rises over 10%, the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) would issue a formal warning, leading to a recommendation for all UN members who have territories in potentially threatened areas to start terrestrial preparedness.

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