NASA Tracks Asteroid 2024 YR4 with 1.5% Chance of Earth Impact in 2032

Image credits: ATLAS/University of Hawaii/NASA/AP

NASA and other international space agencies are closely tracking asteroid 2024 YR4, a recently discovered planetoid that has a 1.5% probability of making impact with Earth in 2032. The asteroid, estimated to be between 130 and 300 feet in width, is considered a potential threat due to its size and possible trajectory. According to NASA, the chances of a giant space rock striking the Earth have decreased, but the agency is still devising a plan to obliterate it if necessary. The asteroid's composition is unknown, which poses a challenge in determining the best course of action to take.

The European Space Agency's Webb Space Telescope will observe the asteroid in March to help astronomers pin down its orbit and size. NASA is working with international partners, including China's CNSA, Russia's Roscosmos, and the European Space Agency, to formulate a response to the potential threat. If further calculations confirm a high probability of impact, experts may deploy a rocket armed with explosives to either alter the asteroid's trajectory or destroy it entirely. The asteroid is expected to come back into view in 2028, and astronomers will continue to track it to gather more data and refine their predictions.

Researchers are using a multitude of telescopes to observe the space rock and understand its size and orbit, which will likely reveal lower chances of a 2032 collision than what the current data shows. The asteroid is currently ranked as a 3 on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, which means it has a 1% or greater chance of collision capable of localized destruction. According to Richard Binzel, inventor of the scale, the asteroid's ranking of 3 means that it would cause local damage, whereas a larger object like Apophis would cause regional damage. The Torino Scale is a tool used to categorize potential collisions of space objects with Earth, and it provides a way to communicate the risks to the public and astronomers.

Astronomers are expecting similar forecasting trends with 2024 YR4 as they did with Apophis, which was previously considered one of the most hazardous asteroids. Apophis was ranked as a 4 on the Torino Scale, but its ranking was later revised after a precise analysis of its orbit in 2021. The asteroid 2024 YR4 is expected to harmlessly whiz by Earth in 2028, but it's crucial for astronomers to keep actively watching and tracking the asteroid to gather more data. Using a pasta analogy, Binzel likened the uncertainty around the asteroid's future location to a long fettuccine noodle that spans across the orbit of the moon around Earth.

The asteroid was discovered after passing by Earth in December, and after April, it won't be visible again until June 2028. NASA and international space agencies will continue to track the asteroid and refine their predictions to determine the best course of action to take. Some of the key details about the asteroid include:

• Asteroid 2024 YR4 has a 1.5% chance of striking Earth in 2032
• The asteroid is estimated to be between 130 and 300 feet in width
• The European Space Agency's Webb Space Telescope will observe the asteroid in March
• NASA is working with international partners to formulate a response to the potential threat
• The asteroid is currently ranked as a 3 on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale