Asteroid 2024 YR4: NASA Updates Odds of Potential Earth Impact in 2032
Image credits: Handout / NASA/Magdalena Ridge 2.4m telescope/New Mexico Institute of Technology, AFP
The possibility of a "city-killing" asteroid hitting Earth has increased, with NASA updating the odds of asteroid 2024 YR4 impacting our planet in 2032 to a record 3.1%. This asteroid is estimated to be between 40 and 90 meters wide and has a velocity that could cause significant destruction if it were to enter Earth's atmosphere. The asteroid's impact probability has been steadily increasing since its discovery, with the European Space Agency initially giving it a 1.3% chance of hitting Earth. NASA's latest calculations put the odds at 3.1%, which translates to a one-in-32 chance of impact.
The space agency's update has sparked concern and monitoring from space agencies worldwide, with the International Asteroid Warning Network issuing a warning memo after the impact probability crossed 1%. The network has identified a potential impact corridor that spans the eastern Pacific, northern South America, the Atlantic, Africa, the Arabian Peninsula, and South Asia. While the odds of impact are still relatively low, the asteroid's potential devastation comes from its velocity, which could be nearly 40,000 miles per hour if it hits, causing an explosion in the atmosphere or creating an impact crater.
Scientists are closely monitoring the situation, with the James Webb Space Telescope set to gather more data on the asteroid's trajectory. The telescope's observations will be key in better understanding the asteroid's size and composition, which will help determine the potential impact hazard. NASA and other space agencies are also exploring methods to deflect or disrupt the asteroid's path, including using spacecraft to alter its trajectory or using lasers to create thrust. The good news is that there's ample time to act, with the potential impact date still seven years away.
The asteroid's discovery has highlighted the importance of monitoring near-Earth objects and the need for international cooperation in planetary defense. The European Space Agency's planetary defense office has emphasized that this is not a crisis at this point in time, but rather a rare event that warrants attention and monitoring. As more observations of the asteroid's orbit are obtained, its impact probability will become better known, and scientists will be able to determine the best course of action to mitigate any potential threat.
Some of the key facts about asteroid 2024 YR4 include:
- Estimated size: 40-90 meters wide
- Velocity: nearly 40,000 miles per hour
- Impact probability: 3.1%
- Potential impact date: December 22, 2032
- Potential impact corridor: eastern Pacific, northern South America, the Atlantic, Africa, the Arabian Peninsula, and South Asia
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