Asteroid 2024 YR4 Collision Course: NASA Updates Odds of City-Killing Impact

Image credits: NASA, Supplied

The possibility of a "city-killing" asteroid hitting Earth has doubled in recent weeks, with NASA updating the odds of asteroid 2024 YR4 colliding with our planet in 2032 to 3.1%, or a one-in-32 chance of impact. This is the highest probability of a collision yet, surpassing the 2.7% chance of Apophis hitting Earth in 2004. The asteroid, estimated to be between 40 and 90 meters wide, has been deemed a level three on the Torino scale, indicating a "close encounter, meriting attention by astronomers" and a "1% or greater chance of collision capable of localized destruction."

According to NASA, the asteroid's size and trajectory make it a significant threat, with the potential to cause severe damage to a local region. The European Space Agency (ESA) has also weighed in, giving the asteroid a 1.3% chance of hitting Earth on December 22, 2032. The impact risk corridor extends across the eastern Pacific Ocean, northern South America, the Atlantic Ocean, Africa, the Arabian Sea, and South Asia, putting millions of people at risk. Scientists plan to use the James Webb Space Telescope to gather more information about the asteroid's size and orbit, which will help determine the level of damage it could cause if it were to strike Earth.

The asteroid's projected trajectory spans eight of the world's most populated cities, including Bogota, Lagos, Mumbai, and Chennai, with a total at-risk population of around 110 million people. While the odds of a collision are still relatively low, scientists are taking the threat seriously and are working to gather as much information as possible about the asteroid. The asteroid will fly behind the Sun in April, putting it out of sight of most of Earth's terrestrial telescopes until it comes back into view in 2028, making it essential to gather as much data as possible before then.

Some of the key facts about asteroid 2024 YR4 include:

• Estimated size: 40-90 meters wide
• Projected trajectory: spans eight of the world's most populated cities
• Impact risk corridor: extends across the eastern Pacific Ocean, northern South America, the Atlantic Ocean, Africa, the Arabian Sea, and South Asia
• At-risk population: around 110 million people
• Torino scale rating: level three, indicating a "close encounter, meriting attention by astronomers" and a "1% or greater chance of collision capable of localized destruction"

The situation is being closely monitored by NASA and other space agencies, and the public will be kept informed of any updates or changes to the asteroid's trajectory or impact probability.

As the situation continues to unfold, scientists are urging calm but also emphasizing the importance of being prepared. While the odds of a collision are still relatively low, it's essential to take the threat seriously and to continue monitoring the asteroid's trajectory and impact probability. With the help of advanced technology, such as the James Webb Space Telescope, scientists will be able to gather more information about the asteroid and make more accurate predictions about its potential impact.

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