Asteroid 2024 YR4: NASA Tracks Potentially Hazardous Space Rock with 2% Chance of Impact

Image credits: ESA/FILE

The discovery of asteroid 2024 YR4 has sent a wave of interest throughout the scientific community, with NASA and astronomers closely tracking the space rock's movement. Estimated to be between 131 and 295 feet wide, this asteroid has a 2% chance of hitting Earth in 2032, although the odds are still considered slim. The asteroid's size is comparable to that of a large building, and its potential impact could cause regional devastation if it were to collide with our planet.

Astronomers are utilizing powerful telescopes, including the James Webb Space Telescope, to gather more data on the asteroid's trajectory and size. The Webb telescope, which sees the universe in infrared light, will be able to measure the heat reflected by the asteroid, providing a more accurate size estimate. This information is crucial in determining the potential risks associated with the asteroid's impact, as a larger asteroid could produce blast damage as far as 50 kilometers from the impact site.

The asteroid was first discovered by the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) telescope in Rio Hurtado, Chile, on December 27. Since then, multiple observations have been made using an array of telescopes, including the Magdalena Ridge Observatory in New Mexico, the Danish Telescope, and the Very Large Telescope in Chile. The asteroid is currently more than 30 million miles away from Earth and is moving farther away over time, but it will be visible through early April before disappearing from view.

The European Space Agency's Webb Space Telescope will observe the asteroid in March, providing measurements of its position and temperature. A second observation campaign is planned for May, which will help scientists determine the asteroid's orbit and potential risks. If the asteroid disappears from view before space agencies can rule out any chance of impact, it will remain on the risk list until it is back in view in June 2028. Understanding the exact size of the asteroid is crucial in estimating the risks associated with its potential impact, and astronomers are working tirelessly to gather more data on this potentially hazardous space rock.

In the unlikely event that 2024 YR4 is on an impact trajectory, NASA has estimated that the impact would occur somewhere along a risk corridor that extends across the eastern Pacific Ocean, northern South America, the Atlantic Ocean, Africa, the Arabian Sea, and South Asia. The asteroid has been given a Level 3 out of 10 on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, which suggests a close encounter meriting attention by astronomers. While the alert level is the second-highest recorded since 2004, experts say it's too soon to fret over this asteroid, and the impact probability is expected to drop to zero at some point. The asteroid's orbit will be closely monitored, and scientists will continue to gather data to determine the potential risks associated with its impact.