German Election 2025: Voters Head to Polls Amidst Global Uncertainty and Rising Far-Right Influence

Image credits: Ronald Wittek/EPA

Germany, the world's third largest economic power and most populous EU country, is holding a critical election that will determine the direction of the country amidst a backdrop of global uncertainty and rising far-right influence. Nearly 60 million people are choosing a government that will have to grapple with the breakdown of the transatlantic alliance and new threats to European security, just as the country's vaunted economic model is facing significant challenges. The election is expected to be won by conservative opposition chief Friedrich Merz, a corporate lawyer with a decades-long desire to be chancellor, despite never serving in government. His in-tray will be staggering, with issues ranging from an aggressive Russia to a hostile America and a Europe that is drifting apart.

The campaign has been marked by a series of debates and discussions, with Merz recently admitting that Donald Trump's effective abandonment of European defence pledges and his vice-president's aggressive backing of the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) have heralded "tectonic shifts in the political and economic power centres of the world". Germany, he said, would not emerge unscathed. The country is already struggling with the muddled legacy of Angela Merkel, one of Merz's predecessors as CDU leader and his longtime nemesis. Her 16-year tenure as chancellor was marked by reliance on cheap Russian gas, brisk trade with China, and Washington's military and intelligence might, allowing Germany to focus on what it did best: manufacturing cars and machine tools while holding the EU together.

However, the halt of Russian energy supplies has sent prices soaring, spurring galloping post-pandemic inflation and weighing heavily on industries such as steel and chemicals. The current government, led by Olaf Scholz, has scrambled to find new fuel sources while pushing renewables. China, in the meantime, has pivoted from buying German vehicles to undercutting them with cheaper models, particularly in the EV sector. The election has also been marked by a series of attacks in which the suspect is from a migrant background, which some analysts believe could boost AfD support. The latest came on Friday, when a Spanish tourist was stabbed at Berlin's Holocaust memorial, with prosecutors saying the suspect was a 19-year-old Syrian refugee who appeared to have planned to kill Jews.

The AfD, which is polling in second place to Merz's CDU-CSU bloc, has been gaining support across the country, with surveys suggesting it could double its support from the last election to win about 20% of the vote. The party calls for mass deportation of migrants, a resumption of Russian gas imports, an end to military aid for Ukraine, and exiting the eurozone. Although most analysts expect Merz to maintain the "firewall" barring formal cooperation with the far right, a strong AfD finish would greatly complicate his efforts to produce a reliable majority. The election has also seen a series of protests, with hundreds of thousands taking to the streets in defence of democracy, drawing parallels with the Weimar era, a century ago.

The outcome of the election will have significant implications for Germany and the EU, with the country facing a series of challenges, including reforming the debt brake, increasing defence spending, and reasserting German leadership in Europe. The next government will have to take great pains to address these issues, with some analysts arguing that the true Zeitenwende (turning point) for Germany is still to come. The election has also highlighted the growing influence of the far-right in German politics, with the AfD waiting in the wings, and the need for centrist parties to come together to keep them out. The results of the election will be closely watched, both in Germany and across the EU, as the country navigates a pivotal moment in its history, with the following key points to consider: * The election is expected to be won by Friedrich Merz's conservative Christian Democrats * The AfD is polling in second place, with surveys suggesting it could win about 20% of the vote * The election has been marked by a series of debates and discussions on issues ranging from European security to migration and the economy * The outcome of the election will have significant implications for Germany and the EU, with the country facing a series of challenges, including reforming the debt brake and increasing defence spending * The growing influence of the far-right in German politics is a major concern, with the need for centrist parties to come together to keep them out.