Germany Election: Far-Right AfD Gains Momentum

Image credits: Ronald Wittek/EPA-EFE

Germany's rival political leaders are making a final push for votes ahead of Sunday's election, which is being closely watched across Europe due to its potential impact on the continent's biggest economy and democracy. The conservative CDU-CSU alliance, led by Friedrich Merz, has long had a strong lead in opinion polls, but the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) has been gaining momentum, polling around 20% and posing a challenge to mainstream parties. The AfD's rise has been fueled by anger over a spate of deadly attacks blamed on migrants, and the party has been backed by figures such as US Vice-President JD Vance and tech billionaire Elon Musk.

The election comes at a time of upheaval for Europe, with US President Donald Trump's presidency having ended a united Western stance on the Ukraine conflict, and his threats of a trade war spelling more trouble ahead for Germany's economy, which has shrunk for the past two years. The AfD has been polling in second place, boosted by its nationalist and anti-immigration message, and its leader Alice Weidel has been in the thick of TV debates, sharing the stage with both Merz and Chancellor Olaf Scholz. The party's success has been especially fueled by the narrative of a "refugee crisis" in Germany, and harsh political rhetoric about migration has contributed to its electoral success.

The CDU's Merz has ruled out forming a ruling alliance with the AfD, which leaves his two most likely partners as the SPD and the Greens, who are polling on around 15 and 13 percent respectively. However, forming a coalition is likely to be very difficult, and it would be in Germany's interest to have people in place in Berlin who are capable of acting as quickly as possible. The AfD's breakthrough in the 2017 federal election shattered the status quo, and the party has evolved into a far-right party by continuously radicalizing its positions, advocating stricter anti-immigration policies and a return to a blood-based citizenship.

The party's ideology is characterized by nativism and authoritarianism, and it has been accused of promoting "leftist, woke gender ideology" and seeking to reframe modern Germany as a continuation of its pre-1933 history, while downplaying the significance of the Nazi era. The AfD's success has especially been fueled by its ability to flood the media and public discourse with controversy, misinformation, and inflammatory rhetoric, to dominate attention and transgress traditional political norms. The party's normalization has been facilitated by mainstream media treating AfD representatives as legitimate political contenders, and the party has received international legitimacy from figures such as US Vice-President JD Vance and Elon Musk.

The election may give an indication of how far the AfD's normalization will go and how it will affect Germany's political future. The boundaries that once kept the far right at the margins are no longer as firm as they once were, and the party's electoral success has been boosted by its ability to tap into concerns about migration and security. The outcome of the election will have significant implications for Germany's economy, migration policy, and its role in Europe, and it will be closely watched by leaders across the continent. Some of the key issues at stake in the election include: * The future of Germany's economy, which has been struggling to escape recession * The country's migration policy, which has been a major point of contention in the campaign * The role of the AfD in German politics, and whether it will be able to build on its current level of support * The impact of the election on Germany's relationships with other European countries, and its position within the EU * The potential for coalition-building and the formation of a new government, which could involve complex negotiations between multiple parties.