Trump Claims 95% Drop in Illegal Immigration

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The Trump administration has been touting a significant drop in illegal immigration, with claims of a 95% decrease in daily encounters at the southern border. However, fact-checking reveals that the data used to support this claim is misleading, and the trend may not be as clear-cut as the administration suggests. The White House pointed to a Fox News Instagram post that showed a chart comparing the number of daily encounters during the last seven days of the Biden administration to the first seven days of the Trump administration. However, this comparison is flawed, as it uses the total number of border encounters for Biden's last seven days in office and compares it with a daily average for Trump's first seven days in office.

A closer examination of the data reveals that the drop in illegal immigration is not as steep as the administration claims. According to a Jan. 28 Fox News article, the number of daily encounters at the southern border decreased by 60% from the last seven days of the Biden administration to the first seven days of the Trump administration. Additionally, the White House and Fox News are using encounters both at official ports of entry and between them, which can be misleading. Under Biden's administration, people could make appointments at official ports of entry and be legally allowed to enter the U.S. to seek asylum, which would still count as an encounter. The Trump administration ended this program on its first day in office and canceled all existing appointments, which could also affect the numbers.

Border Patrol Chief Michael Banks said in a Jan. 29 post that there was a 55% drop in encounters between ports of entry from the seven-day-period starting Jan. 16 to the period starting Jan. 23. However, it's essential to consider the broader context and longer-term trends when evaluating the administration's claims. Immigration experts often note that weather patterns, changes in administration and policies, or political shifts in people's home countries can affect migration trends. The data shows that illegal immigration has generally been dropping since March 2024, and it dropped significantly after June, when Biden implemented a policy limiting people's ability to apply for asylum at the southwest border.

The White House's claims about a dramatic drop in "gotaways" – people who cross the border without being stopped – are also misleading. The Fox News post the White House pointed to compares a full year of data to a few days or weeks of data, which is not an accurate comparison. Official gotaways data is published once a year and represents years-old data. The most recent publicly available data is from the Department of Homeland Security's 2022 Metrics Report, which shows fiscal year 2021 data. Like encounters, gotaways numbers had also been steadily dropping before Trump came into office. A Department of Homeland Security statement on Jan. 17 said the number of gotaways in fiscal year 2024 had dropped by 60% from the year before.

In conclusion, while there has been a drop in illegal immigration at the southern border, the Trump administration's claims about a 95% decrease are exaggerated and misleading. The trend is more complex, and it's essential to consider the broader context and longer-term trends when evaluating the data. The impact of the administration's policies on immigration trends is still unclear, and it's crucial to continue monitoring the situation to understand the effects of these policies on migration patterns.