Canadian Federal Polls Show Dramatic Shift in Voting Preferences

Image credits: Adrian Wyld/The Canadian Press

Recent federal polls have shown a dramatic shift in Canadians' voting preferences, but analysts say there is no guarantee it's a lasting trend. CBC's Poll Tracker has clocked a massive Conservative lead for the better part of the last two years. However, survey results from the past few weeks suggest that lead is quickly evaporating. An Ipsos poll conducted between Feb. 21 and 24 has the Liberals ahead of the Conservatives among decided voters, though the two-point spread falls well within the 3.8 per cent margin of error. This is the first time Ipsos has shown the Liberals in the lead in years, erasing a 26-point Conservative lead that the firm tracked six weeks ago.

A strong majority of Canadians believe an immediate federal election is necessary to establish strong leadership and a clear mandate to address President Trump's tariff threat. Nearly half of Canadians strongly support holding an election immediately. Support for an immediate election is highest among Conservative voters, followed by NDP voters and Liberal voters. The Ipsos poll also found that the Liberals have gained 10 points of support since the last poll in January, while the Conservatives have lost 5 points. The NDP's vote continues to collapse, with a 4-point decline.

Analysts attribute the rapid gains the Liberals have made to three factors: Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announcing he would be stepping down, interest in the party's leadership race, and the return of U.S. President Donald Trump. The possibility of a new Liberal leader, such as former central banker Mark Carney, has also been factored into some polls. A Leger survey suggested that Liberal support with Trudeau still in charge has the Liberals trailing the Conservatives, but with the possibility of Carney at the helm, the Liberals jump ahead of the Tories by two percentage points. The Conservatives, on the other hand, are facing headwinds from rising anti-Trump sentiment and anticipation surrounding the Liberal Party's new leadership.

The rebound of the Liberals appears to be in part due to the waning favourability of Jagmeet Singh's New Democrats. The NDP's fortunes appear to be the opposite of the Liberals, with the party losing almost half of its voters and facing serious trouble. The Ipsos poll doesn't account for undecided voters, while Leger's most recent survey found 10 per cent of Canadians were unsure who they'd support. However, analysts warn that undecided voters generally don't vote or end up falling in line with the decided voter trends. The next election could be as early as this spring, and the outcome is still uncertain, with both the Liberals and Conservatives having a chance to win.

Some key statistics from the polls include: * 86% of Canadians believe an immediate federal election is necessary * 48% of Canadians strongly support holding an election immediately * The Liberals have gained 10 points of support since the last poll in January * The Conservatives have lost 5 points * The NDP's vote continues to collapse, with a 4-point decline * 10% of Canadians are undecided about who they would support in an election. The situation is complex, and the outcome of the next election will depend on various factors, including the election campaign and the performance of the party leaders. As one analyst noted, "Could the Liberals still blow this? Oh, absolutely they could. A bad interview, a stupid comment here or there and then it could revert back. This is very soft support that is returning to the Liberals."